USD/CAD risks a mover higher towards 1.26 on BoC rate cut speculation – Rabobank

FXStreet (Barcelona) - Jane Foley, Senior Currency Strategist at Rabobank, views that while rising rebounding oil prices has supported CAD, rate cut expectations from the BoC will keep the currency pressured against the USD for a move towards 1.26.

Key Quotes

“Oil prices have been benefitting from a modest reprieve; Nymex futures have held above the $50 /b level though most of Feb. This is good news for oil producing nations such as Canada and consequently the news has lent support to the CAD.”

“That said, the market sees a strong chance that the BoC will cut interest rates again in March or April. This suggests there is potential for the CAD to fall further vs. the USD in the coming months.”

“In recent years, record levels of household debt and a fast appreciating property market have been used as arguments against further BoC easing.”

“Calgary’s house prices are currently cooling fast on the back of the slowing oil industry. National data is indicating that overall house price growth is slowing.”

“Although we have shaved our forecasts for USD/CAD on the back of the more stable oil prices, we see risk of a move back towards the 1.26 area in the coming weeks on market speculation of another BoC rate cut.”

FORCVAST FOR EURUSD 16-20 FEB

EUR/USD traded in a narrow range for long periods, a feat unseen for a long time, but eventually made a nice move higher. Greece remains in the limelight, but we also have the first ECB meeting minutes, PMIs and other events to move the common currency. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

Greece was left, front and center. Tough rhetoric was heard from both sides around the Eurogroup meeting. Greece seems to be willing to compromise on some aspects but still wants a change in debt repayment. Germany seems willing only to change the word “troika” but offers a tough stance. This might change after elections in Hamburg. Data continued beating expectations, with strong German growth standing out. Is the weaker euro already bearing fruit? In the US, the strength that followed the NFP faded when both retail sales and consumer confidence disappointed.

Technical lines from top to bottom:

The post crisis low of 1.1867, should be watched. 1.1750 was a low point the pair reached in a breakdown in early January 2015. The round number of 1.17 was the launch value of the pair in 1999 and has a symbolic meaning.

Below, we have the post Swiss bounce of 1.1650 which worked as resistance. Lower, 1.1540 provided support in mid January.

Below the round number of 1.15 we have the pre-QE low of 1.1460 that could work as resistance.

1.1373 was the low line seen in November 2003 and proved to work as resistance and support lately. Below the initial low point of 1.1313 we have 1.1270, which provided support twice in February 2015.

The round number of 1.12 is now the pivotal line in the range. It is followed by the fresh low of 1.1113 which is nearly 0.90 on USD/EUR.

The next line is the round 1.10. It is followed by 1.0760, which was the low point in both July and August 2003.

Below this point we have the round numbers of 1.05 and 1 – EUR/USD parity, which is already eyed by some analysts.

I am bullish on EUR/USD

GLOBAL FUND FOREX: Where To Sell EUR/USD, AUD/USD, & To Buy USD/CAD? ...

GLOBAL FUND FOREX: Where To Sell EUR/USD, AUD/USD, & To Buy USD/CAD? ...: The dollar is set to continue rising according tot he team at UBS, against the euro, Aussie and loonie. Yet they not only talk about the ...

Where To Sell EUR/USD, AUD/USD, & To Buy USD/CAD? – UBS

The dollar is set to continue rising according tot he team at UBS, against the euro, Aussie and loonie.

Yet they not only talk about the directions but also about entry points and targets for three key pairs:

Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews:

The following are UBS’ latest short-term (mostly intraday) trading strategies for EUR/USD, AUD/USD, and USD/CAD.

EUR/USD: has been choppy on uncertainty around Greece. The pair overnight traded up to 1.1353 on news that Greece will stay in EU bailout program but slipped back to 1.1310 when Greece denied those reports. With ECB QE, US rates and the search for an agreement with Greece weighing on EURUSD, we still prefer to sell on spikes to 1.1450-1.1500.

AUD/USD: slipped to 0.7670 from 0.7725 on the disappointing Australia employment data. Selling in AUD crosses kept the pair offered down to 0.7644. Sell rallies to 0.7740 and 0.7880. Support lies at 0.7620, the Feb. 3 low, ahead of 0.7450, the May 18 2009 low. Watch RBA Governor Stevens’ testimony tonight.

USD/CAD: was paid up to 1.2700 in New York yesterday with crude oil prices slipping below $49. The pair has a short-term uptrend line building around 1.2540. Start buying on dips under 1.26, eventually targeting 1.30.

Warren Buffett Tells You How to Turn $40 In $10 Million

Learning This Simple Concept Could Make You Rich
There is a simple path to wealth...
It doesn't require much work. It doesn't require much knowledge. You don't have to be lucky, or even all that good.
You just have to learn one simple concept: capital efficiency.
It's one of our favorite strategies of is perhaps the greatest investor of all time. Finding companies that generate massive amounts of cash without having to pour huge sums back into capital investment to keep the business going and growing.
They don't have to spend much money investing in their businesses because their primary asset is their well-established, good reputation
If you love Coke, you're not likely to switch brands. As long as Coke delivers the same high-quality product at the same reasonable price, you'll stick with it. Coke doesn't have to build new technologies or constantly create new products. It doesn't even have to spend a fortune on advertising. It has an installed, loyal, and ready base of buyers... and a large moat around its business, thanks to brand loyalty.
If you're prepared to hang on for the long haul, investing in capital-efficient companies with dominant brands is one of the simplest paths to great wealth.

Just ask legendary investor Warren Buffett...


This strategy has made Buffett one of the richest people on the planet.


For example, look at the huge stake that Buffett took in the iconic soda brand Coca-Cola back in 1988. At the time, he told shareholders...

We expect to hold these securities for a long time. In fact, when we own portions of outstanding businesses with outstanding managements, our favorite holding period is forever.
Warren Buffett is perhaps the greatest investor of all time, and he has a simple solution that could help an individual turn $40 into $10 million.
Warren Buffett spoke about one of his favorite companies, Coca-Cola, and how after dividends, stock splits, and patient reinvestment, someone who bought just $40 worth of the company's stock when it went public in 1919 would now have more than $10 million.
We know that $40 in 1919 is very different from $40 today. However, even after factoring for inflation, it turns out to be $540 in today's money. Put differently, would you rather have an iPhone, or $10 million?

The dangers of timing
Yet as Buffett has noted continually, it's terribly dangerous to attempt to time the market:
"With a wonderful business, you can figure out what will happen; you can't figure out when it will happen. You don't want to focus on when, you want to focus on what. If you're right about what, you don't have to worry about when."
Investing for the long term
Individuals need to see that investing is not like placing a bet on black or red, but instead it's buying a tangible piece of a business.
It is absolutely important to understand the relative price you are paying for that business, but what isn't important is attempting to understand whether you're buying in at the "right time."

In Buffett's own words, "if you're right about the business, you'll make a lot of money," so don't bother about attempting the perfect timing. Instead always remember that "it's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price."



Business magazine Forbes ranks Coke as the world's fourth-most valuable brand. Without taking away anything from the company's management, Coke is a simple business. It made soda 100 years ago. It makes soda today. And it will be making soda in another 100 years. Sure, packaging and marketing campaigns change. But not much (if anything) has changed about the company's core product, Coke.

In 2013, Coca-Cola sold more than $46 billion in product. It operates on gross margins of around 60%, meaning it produced $28 billion in gross profits. And the thing we love most is it generated almost $8 billion in free cash flow. This is the amount of cash left after the company has paid out all operating and capital expenses. It's the number that doesn't lie.


As a result, between dividends and share repurchases, it sent roughly $8.5 billion back to shareholders... more than triple its $2.5 billion in capital expenditure. And the company has been treating shareholders this way for years.
This is a wonderful business. No other words can describe it. And it is dead easy to understand for investors.
Buffett spent about $1 billion on Coke shares in 1988 and 1989. By the end of 1989, the position was equal to 35% of Berkshire Hathaway's entire equity portfolio. Today, Berkshire's Coke position has grown to about a 9% stake in the company and has a market value of around $17 billion. And that doesn't count the massive dividends that Coca-Cola has paid to Berkshire over the years.


The concept is simple to understand.
We look for companies that consistently grow sales, generate huge chunks of free cash flow with high returns on assets, and reward shareholders by way of dividends and share buybacks.
Understanding capital efficiency gives you an edge... You'll be way ahead of almost every investor you know. And if you learn how to buy capital-efficient businesses at the right prices, you will be well on your way to accumulating real wealth through your investments.

KEY TAKEAWAY
Obvious, when it comes to investments, there are a lot of risks. Although, the biggest risk is...never to take risks.

WHAT S NEXT?
The Coca-Cola Company (#KO in trading platform) just released fourth quarter and full-year 2014 financial results on Tuesday, 10th of February, 2015, before the USA stock market opened (market opens at 14:30 GMT). Shares of the world's largest beverage maker rose 3.4 percent in premarket trading. U.S. sales rose 2 percent to $5.37 billion in the fourth quarter ended Dec. 31, accounting for about half of total sales. Analysts say U.S. consumers are still drinking less soda, but are paying more for it. Low gasoline prices and a brighter job market have encouraged many consumers to dig deeper into their pockets.
There can be opportunities in #KO, #KO-Pro CFD. You can BUY or SELL. The Coca-Cola Company CFDs by using your MetaTrader 4 terminal.

Start Trading!

---

STOCKS

		Brief synopsis and analysis of stocks making the news during the current equities trading session.
		ADVERTISEMENT: Get 3 Trade Ideas Each Week for FREE! Tradespoon platform provides 3 stock ideas each week with specific price predictions for next 50 days using state of the art predictive analytics. Try for FREE - No credit card required - No obligation or risk.

		Story Stocks: Whirlpool (WHR) reports large EPS beat after several misses; co has been aggressive overseas Whirlpool (WHR) is rallying about 6% today following a very strong Q4 report this morning. You're probably familiar with Whirlpool, the largest major appliance manufacturer in the world with $20 billion in annual sales. However, a little additional color is always helpful. Its major brands include Whirlpool, KitchenAid, Maytag, Amana etc. Its sales breakdown is as follows: Washers/Dryers at 29% of revenue, Refrigerators/Freezers at 29%, Cooking Appliances at 18% and Other (dishwashers, mixers, compressors etc.) at 24%.  Turning to the Q4 results, non-GAAP EPS rose 19% YoY to $3.52 while revenue rose 17.9% YoY to $6.0 bln. Both results were better than expected, especially the EPS which usually means that margins came in stronger than expectations. WHR also guided in-line for FY15.  Of note, WHR was pretty active on the M&A front in 2014, especially targeting foreign appliance makers in order to boost sales in those regions. For example, Whirlpool bought a 51% stake in China's Hefei Sanyo for $551 mln in order to boost its sales in Asia. Asia had represented only about 5% of total sales before the deal but there are estimates that this acquisition will double sales to Asia. Whirlpool also bought a majority stake in Italy-based Indesit for $1 bln. It's one of Europe's largest manufacturers of major appliances. Acquisitions accounted contributed approximately $1 billion of sales in Q4.  We thought it was interesting on the call that, from a bigger picture perspective, Whirlpool outlined its long-term growth strategy. It has three main pillars. The first is geographical expansion. Whirlpool's recent acquisitions have the ability to truly transform and change its business position in both Europe and China. So more exposure overseas, while at the same time, WHR is benefitting from a recovering US market which the company expects will continue not only in 2015 but over a number of years ahead. This is helping offset sluggish growth in emerging markets such as Brazil, China, India, and Russia.  The second core pillar is product and brand innovation. WHR is continuing to accelerate its investments in those relevant technologies and new products which clearly benefit its end consumers. WHR is also continuing to focus on higher margin categories. And the third core pillar is to expand upon what the company believes is the best global cost structure in its industry.  In sum, this was a very nice quarter for Whirlpool. They had missed EPS expectations in each of the prior four quarters heading into Q4 so to report such a strong beat this time was nice for investors to see. It seems that margins came in much better than expected and the recent acquisitions added some nice growth to the top line.

	• ADVERTISEMENT •

		Story Stocks: Littlefuse Trades Down Following Q4 and FY14 Results; Issues Q1, FY15 Outlook Littelfuse (LFUS 93.10, -8.05) has rebounded some off early morning losses following the company's Q4 (Dec) earnings. LFUS reported EPS of $1.02, which was worse than expected, and revenues of $206.6 million, which was better than expected. The company also issued downside guidance for Q1 EPS and revenues. If you're not familiar, LFUS designs, manufacturers, and sells a wide range of electronic, automotive, and industrial products throughout the world. It reports its business results in three segments: Electronics, Automotive, and Electrical. In terms of the results, LFUS reported electronics book-to-bill ratio of 1.06 for Q4. Operating income was negatively impacted be foreign currency effects, negatively impacting operating income by ~$2.1 million in Q4. Year-end true up of certain accruals affected income to the tune of $1.9 million. In addition, performance issues at some plants negatively impacted income by about $1.0 million.  Operating income for two of the three segments declined, Electronics and Electrical. Electronics (LFUS' largest business segment) declined 6% to $16.2 million, and Electrical declined 44% to $3.1 million (albeit Electrical is the smallest business segment). The bright spot was Automotive which improved 3% year-over-year to $9.9 million. Management noted that while it will continue to be impacted by currency headwinds for the foreseeable future, it will also be taking a number of corrective actions including selective price increases, more aggressive expense controls and, where possible, moving faster on our various restructuring efforts. In 2015, LFUS expects currency headwinds to impact earnings by about $30 million, or $0.40 per share compared to 2014. The company noted even with currency headwinds, it expects to achieve 2015 EPS above $5.00, which is below what is expected. In terms of guidance, the company noted it expects Q1 EPS of $1.10-1.14 (negatively affected by currency by $0.10 compared to the prior year), below what is expected. The company also sees Q1 revenues of $202-212 million, which is also below what is expected.  In spite of reporting better than expected revenues for Q4, it appears that investors are taking to heart the company's Q1 and FY15 guidance and problems with production. The stock has rebounded some off daily lows, and now sits about 8.0% lower on the day.

		Briefing.com provides independent, live market analysis of the U.S. and international equity markets. Individual investors, active traders and institutional professionals rely on Briefing.com's timely and unbiased market analysis to make intelligent and profitable investment decisions. We maintain an objective and unbiased approach to our analysis because we do not take any market positions and don't make any money through financial market transactions. Our extensive network of buy-side and sell-side contacts helps us make sure our clients get the real story; often hours before analysts publish their official notes or the mainstream media picks it up. To ensure objectivity, all employees are required to sign the Briefing.com trading policy. Briefing.com remains committed to providing our readers with the timely, useful commentary and analysis they've come to expect. The market moves fast, and Briefing.com's live analysis is a critical tool investors need to keep pace.

	Copyright © 2014 Briefing.com, Inc. All rights reserved.

		This email was sent by: TraderPlanet.com 5807 Old Pasco Road Wesley Chapel, FL, 33544, USA Having trouble reading this email? View it in your browser. Not interested anymore? Unsubscribe or Update Profile.

EUR/USD HAS ESCAPE THE TIGHT RANGE.

EUR/USD has escaped the nice wedge it traded in, and chose the upside. The clear breakout above 1.14 sent the pair to the next resistance line.

What is behind the move? What are the next lines? Here are some answers:

3 reasons for the rise

1. Optimism about Greece: After just over a week in office, the new government seems to align itself with German demands about repaying its debt. While a step back from pre-election rhetoric was certainly expected, it provides a relief to the euro-zone. In addition, the compromise that might arise, a GDP-linked payback of debt, is well received in Greek markets. And while Merkel may drag her legs on a full solution for months, it seems likely that the danger of a Greek exit by PM Alexis Tsipras, or “Alexit”, is off the cards, at least for now.
2. Weak US data: The plunge in factory orders joined a disappointing ISM Manufacturing PMI that joined other underwhelming numbers. Together with yet another bad winter in the US that could slow growth, the prospects for a rate hike coming sooner rather than later seem to diminish.
3. Some positive European data: While the inflation measures show deeper deflation, other figures are beginning to move in the right direction: unemployment was stuck at 11.5% for a long time and it ticked down to 11.4%. Spain and Germany stand out in the improvements, even though the former has a longer way to go than the latter. Spain also posted strong GDP growth. Perhaps deflation is not too bad for growth? In any case, the ECB’s QE is already a done deal.

EUR/USD

As the chart below shows, we have a clear breakout above the wedge and a move above 1.1373. The pair fell short of the next resistance line at 1.1460 which was a low line in January.

Beyond this line, we have some resistance at 1.1540 followed by 1.1650. To the downside, support is found at 1.1290, followed by 1.12 and 1.111.

The big question remains: is this a correction before the next fall or the big turnaround?

More: Is EUR/USD Recovery A Game-Change?: Levels & Targets – JP Morgan

Here is the chart:

EUR/USD GAME RECOVERY IN A TUNNEL?

The stabilization of EUR/USD is raising the question: is this a temporary correction or a big change?

The team at JP Morgan examines the charts and sets targets in both directions:

Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews:

A projected C-wave target for the multi-year double-zigzag consolidation pattern in EUR/USD at 1.1091 finally managed to provide a base for the ongoing recovery, notes JP Morgan.

The big question in this context however is, how far this recovery can extend and where would we get indications for a game change?

“That said, we see pivotal resistance at 1.1460 as crucial, which if taken out, would open the way for a broader recovery to 1.1660/79 (minor 38.2 %/pivot). Only above the latter we’d see the EUR bears in trouble as the next 38.2 % Fib.-retracement on higher scale would only cut in at 1.2092,” JPM argues.

“Particularly below 1.1460 though, 1.1091 remains at risk. Once taken out, there would only 1.0765 and 1.0503 (pivots) left on the way towards 1.0072 (76.4 %), if not to 0.9298 (wave 3 projection),” JPM adds.

Weekly outlook

Learn how to turn this Daily Outlook into a profitable trade with free courses from Globalfunddx traders.

NZD/USD

The NZD/USD pair initially tried to rally during the course of the week, but found enough trouble at the 0.75 level to turn things back around and fall rather drastically. This of course was because the Royal Bank of New Zealand mentioned that a rate cut wasn’t impossible at this point in time, and that of course has the markets worrying about potential actions coming out of Wellington. With that being the case, I feel that this market heads down to the 0.70 level given enough time.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair initially broke higher during the course of the week as the market trying to reach for the 1.15 handle. That’s an area that should be resistive though, and the fact that we pulled back and formed a shooting star only confirms this. That means that we should continue to see bearish pressure, and that should of course send this market lower. I believe that the Euro should continue to weaken at this point in time, as we should then head down to the 1.10 level.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair initially tried to rally during the course of the week, but sold off rather drastically. The shooting star that sits at the 1.50 level looks as if it is a sign that the market is going to continue to go lower, but I see a significant amount of noise only down to the 1.48 level that should be somewhat supportive. With that, I believe that this market does go lower, but it might be a bit choppy. All rallies will be sold by me.

EUR/CHF

The EUR/CHF pair broke much higher during the course of the week, slamming into the 1.05 level. However, that is a large, round, psychologically significant number and we did of course form a shooting star at that region on Friday. That suggests to me that the market should sell off relatively soon, but if we break above the 1.05 level, I am more than willing to sell resistive candles at higher levels as well. I have no interest whatsoever in selling this market after the shenanigans out of the Swiss National Bank.

Euro outlook

Scotiabank noted the rally in the euro on 

Key Quotes:

"The flash headline estimate dropped –0.6% y/y (consensus was for –0.5%y/y) and core fell to 0.6%y/y, a fresh record low—see chart. EUR’s reaction, rallying from 1.1320 to 1.1360, suggests some positive inflows into EUR and a hesitancy to short EUR from here."

"The bar for further ECB action is likely fairly high; while the risks to the USD side of the equation are increasing. The technical picture has also shifted to a more mixed outlook (the MACD is flirting with a buy signal), it should be seen as a warning of a temporary period of stability in EUR. However, we expect the trend in EUR to still downward throughout 2015."

"EUR/USD short‐term technicals: bearish—but shifting towards neutral. The chart warns of a short period of range trading between the recent low of 1.1098 and high of 1.1423, these levels can serve as support and resistance and a break would warn of further upside or downside pressure."

EURUSD OUTLOOK

Currency pair: EUR/USD
Sentiment: Bearish
Trend Index : 0
Market Focus:on thursday trade set up i  focussed on selling opportunities on the EUR/USD.
Fundamentals: The Fed came across more hawkish than investors had thought as the FOMC Statement was released yesterday showing the US is the only developed nation central bank that is considering raising rates this year. The Fed had a positive view of the economy as a whole saying oil prices would have a positive impact on households however they would take into account international developments as an uncertain global outlook remains.
Technicals: I am still looking for selling opportunities on any decent rallies by monday, with a decent resistance area eyed out at 1.1342.

US GDP slows down in Q4 2014

As per the preliminary data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.6% in Q4 2014, missing the expectation of 3.0%, and down from the Q3 growth rate of 5.00%. 

The economy witnessed positive contributions from from personal consumption, which rose 4.3%, beating the expected rise of 4.0%. Other major contributors were private inventory investment, exports. On the other hand, the growth rate was pressurized by an upturn in imports, a downturn in federal government spending, and decelerations in nonresidential fixed investment. 

Meanwhile, the GDP price index, decreased 0.3% in the fourth quarter, in contrast to an increase of 1.4 % in the third.

Currency Daily Review

The USDCAD has rip the 1.27 price. its an unstoppable machine.