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USD/CAD risks a mover higher towards 1.26 on BoC rate cut speculation – Rabobank

FXStreet (Barcelona) - Jane Foley, Senior Currency Strategist at Rabobank, views that while rising rebounding oil prices has supported CAD, rate cut expectations from the BoC will keep the currency pressured against the USD for a move towards 1.26.

Key Quotes

“Oil prices have been benefitting from a modest reprieve; Nymex futures have held above the $50 /b level though most of Feb. This is good news for oil producing nations such as Canada and consequently the news has lent support to the CAD.”

“That said, the market sees a strong chance that the BoC will cut interest rates again in March or April. This suggests there is potential for the CAD to fall further vs. the USD in the coming months.”

“In recent years, record levels of household debt and a fast appreciating property market have been used as arguments against further BoC easing.”

“Calgary’s house prices are currently cooling fast on the back of the slowing oil industry. National data is indicating that overall house price growth is slowing.”

“Although we have shaved our forecasts for USD/CAD on the back of the more stable oil prices, we see risk of a move back towards the 1.26 area in the coming weeks on market speculation of another BoC rate cut.”

FORCVAST FOR EURUSD 16-20 FEB

EUR/USD traded in a narrow range for long periods, a feat unseen for a long time, but eventually made a nice move higher. Greece remains in the limelight, but we also have the first ECB meeting minutes, PMIs and other events to move the common currency. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

Greece was left, front and center. Tough rhetoric was heard from both sides around the Eurogroup meeting. Greece seems to be willing to compromise on some aspects but still wants a change in debt repayment. Germany seems willing only to change the word “troika” but offers a tough stance. This might change after elections in Hamburg. Data continued beating expectations, with strong German growth standing out. Is the weaker euro already bearing fruit? In the US, the strength that followed the NFP faded when both retail sales and consumer confidence disappointed.

Technical lines from top to bottom:

The post crisis low of 1.1867, should be watched. 1.1750 was a low point the pair reached in a breakdown in early January 2015. The round number of 1.17 was the launch value of the pair in 1999 and has a symbolic meaning.

Below, we have the post Swiss bounce of 1.1650 which worked as resistance. Lower, 1.1540 provided support in mid January.

Below the round number of 1.15 we have the pre-QE low of 1.1460 that could work as resistance.

1.1373 was the low line seen in November 2003 and proved to work as resistance and support lately. Below the initial low point of 1.1313 we have 1.1270, which provided support twice in February 2015.

The round number of 1.12 is now the pivotal line in the range. It is followed by the fresh low of 1.1113 which is nearly 0.90 on USD/EUR.

The next line is the round 1.10. It is followed by 1.0760, which was the low point in both July and August 2003.

Below this point we have the round numbers of 1.05 and 1 – EUR/USD parity, which is already eyed by some analysts.

I am bullish on EUR/USD

GLOBAL FUND FOREX: Where To Sell EUR/USD, AUD/USD, & To Buy USD/CAD? ...

GLOBAL FUND FOREX: Where To Sell EUR/USD, AUD/USD, & To Buy USD/CAD? ...: The dollar is set to continue rising according tot he team at UBS, against the euro, Aussie and loonie. Yet they not only talk about the ...

Where To Sell EUR/USD, AUD/USD, & To Buy USD/CAD? – UBS

The dollar is set to continue rising according tot he team at UBS, against the euro, Aussie and loonie.

Yet they not only talk about the directions but also about entry points and targets for three key pairs:

Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews:

The following are UBS’ latest short-term (mostly intraday) trading strategies for EUR/USD, AUD/USD, and USD/CAD.

EUR/USD: has been choppy on uncertainty around Greece. The pair overnight traded up to 1.1353 on news that Greece will stay in EU bailout program but slipped back to 1.1310 when Greece denied those reports. With ECB QE, US rates and the search for an agreement with Greece weighing on EURUSD, we still prefer to sell on spikes to 1.1450-1.1500.

AUD/USD: slipped to 0.7670 from 0.7725 on the disappointing Australia employment data. Selling in AUD crosses kept the pair offered down to 0.7644. Sell rallies to 0.7740 and 0.7880. Support lies at 0.7620, the Feb. 3 low, ahead of 0.7450, the May 18 2009 low. Watch RBA Governor Stevens’ testimony tonight.

USD/CAD: was paid up to 1.2700 in New York yesterday with crude oil prices slipping below $49. The pair has a short-term uptrend line building around 1.2540. Start buying on dips under 1.26, eventually targeting 1.30.

Warren Buffett Tells You How to Turn $40 In $10 Million

Learning This Simple Concept Could Make You Rich
There is a simple path to wealth...
It doesn't require much work. It doesn't require much knowledge. You don't have to be lucky, or even all that good.
You just have to learn one simple concept: capital efficiency.
It's one of our favorite strategies of is perhaps the greatest investor of all time. Finding companies that generate massive amounts of cash without having to pour huge sums back into capital investment to keep the business going and growing.
They don't have to spend much money investing in their businesses because their primary asset is their well-established, good reputation
If you love Coke, you're not likely to switch brands. As long as Coke delivers the same high-quality product at the same reasonable price, you'll stick with it. Coke doesn't have to build new technologies or constantly create new products. It doesn't even have to spend a fortune on advertising. It has an installed, loyal, and ready base of buyers... and a large moat around its business, thanks to brand loyalty.
If you're prepared to hang on for the long haul, investing in capital-efficient companies with dominant brands is one of the simplest paths to great wealth.

Just ask legendary investor Warren Buffett...


This strategy has made Buffett one of the richest people on the planet.


For example, look at the huge stake that Buffett took in the iconic soda brand Coca-Cola back in 1988. At the time, he told shareholders...

We expect to hold these securities for a long time. In fact, when we own portions of outstanding businesses with outstanding managements, our favorite holding period is forever.
Warren Buffett is perhaps the greatest investor of all time, and he has a simple solution that could help an individual turn $40 into $10 million.
Warren Buffett spoke about one of his favorite companies, Coca-Cola, and how after dividends, stock splits, and patient reinvestment, someone who bought just $40 worth of the company's stock when it went public in 1919 would now have more than $10 million.
We know that $40 in 1919 is very different from $40 today. However, even after factoring for inflation, it turns out to be $540 in today's money. Put differently, would you rather have an iPhone, or $10 million?

The dangers of timing
Yet as Buffett has noted continually, it's terribly dangerous to attempt to time the market:
"With a wonderful business, you can figure out what will happen; you can't figure out when it will happen. You don't want to focus on when, you want to focus on what. If you're right about what, you don't have to worry about when."
Investing for the long term
Individuals need to see that investing is not like placing a bet on black or red, but instead it's buying a tangible piece of a business.
It is absolutely important to understand the relative price you are paying for that business, but what isn't important is attempting to understand whether you're buying in at the "right time."

In Buffett's own words, "if you're right about the business, you'll make a lot of money," so don't bother about attempting the perfect timing. Instead always remember that "it's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price."



Business magazine Forbes ranks Coke as the world's fourth-most valuable brand. Without taking away anything from the company's management, Coke is a simple business. It made soda 100 years ago. It makes soda today. And it will be making soda in another 100 years. Sure, packaging and marketing campaigns change. But not much (if anything) has changed about the company's core product, Coke.

In 2013, Coca-Cola sold more than $46 billion in product. It operates on gross margins of around 60%, meaning it produced $28 billion in gross profits. And the thing we love most is it generated almost $8 billion in free cash flow. This is the amount of cash left after the company has paid out all operating and capital expenses. It's the number that doesn't lie.


As a result, between dividends and share repurchases, it sent roughly $8.5 billion back to shareholders... more than triple its $2.5 billion in capital expenditure. And the company has been treating shareholders this way for years.
This is a wonderful business. No other words can describe it. And it is dead easy to understand for investors.
Buffett spent about $1 billion on Coke shares in 1988 and 1989. By the end of 1989, the position was equal to 35% of Berkshire Hathaway's entire equity portfolio. Today, Berkshire's Coke position has grown to about a 9% stake in the company and has a market value of around $17 billion. And that doesn't count the massive dividends that Coca-Cola has paid to Berkshire over the years.


The concept is simple to understand.
We look for companies that consistently grow sales, generate huge chunks of free cash flow with high returns on assets, and reward shareholders by way of dividends and share buybacks.
Understanding capital efficiency gives you an edge... You'll be way ahead of almost every investor you know. And if you learn how to buy capital-efficient businesses at the right prices, you will be well on your way to accumulating real wealth through your investments.

KEY TAKEAWAY
Obvious, when it comes to investments, there are a lot of risks. Although, the biggest risk is...never to take risks.

WHAT S NEXT?
The Coca-Cola Company (#KO in trading platform) just released fourth quarter and full-year 2014 financial results on Tuesday, 10th of February, 2015, before the USA stock market opened (market opens at 14:30 GMT). Shares of the world's largest beverage maker rose 3.4 percent in premarket trading. U.S. sales rose 2 percent to $5.37 billion in the fourth quarter ended Dec. 31, accounting for about half of total sales. Analysts say U.S. consumers are still drinking less soda, but are paying more for it. Low gasoline prices and a brighter job market have encouraged many consumers to dig deeper into their pockets.
There can be opportunities in #KO, #KO-Pro CFD. You can BUY or SELL. The Coca-Cola Company CFDs by using your MetaTrader 4 terminal.

Start Trading!

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